When most people think of this market, they think of something boring.

It doesn’t have the same perceived level of excitement as cryptocurrencies and tech stocks. Yet you could argue that this market is the most important of all.

And far from being boring, the moves in this market would put a stock market boom-and-bust cycle to shame. That’s why we keep a close eye on it and try to predict where it will go next.

In today’s essay, we’ll share a trick that can help you time future moves in this market…

A Key Global Market, and a 21-Year Low

The market we’re talking about is the commodities market.

To understand where it might go next, let’s first take a look back at a chart we profiled last week…

This chart tracks the Commodity Research Bureau (CRB) Index. The CRB Index is made up of a basket of 19 different commodities.

Remember, we don’t trade the CRB Index directly. But since it’s a good indicator of the world’s various commodities markets, we do like to follow its performance.

As you can see in the chart above, the index recently broke through a 21-year low (marked by the red line). This is where technical analysis comes in handy… 

When we look at this chart, the most important question we ask ourselves as traders is this: How much lower can the index go?

The answer to this question could shape our views for months or years to come. So, to narrow down the possibilities, we reach into our bag of technical tricks.

And one of the most timeless concepts of technical analysis is this: A broken support level may become a new resistance level. Likewise, a broken resistance may become a new support level.

This is why markets will so often re-test old broken levels.

For the time being, we know from the chart above that we broke the longstanding support level. But now, the index is entering uncharted territory.

What happens next will determine whether we have a tradeable bottom in the commodities markets… or if we’ll continue to see a decline to fresh lows.

Either way, we’re keeping a close eye on the CRB Index for a re-test of that broken support.

More to come…

Regards,

Andy Krieger and Imre Gams
Editors, Money Trends

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